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Gah... .I have been through this so many times now, you'd think I'd know how to cope  but I don't.

Things have been really good for more than two months now, but this last week or so... .he is looking for a fight, I know he is. And I am using all of my learned strategies for dealing - active listening, validating his feelings, not getting too defensive or over-explaining my side of things, asking if he is okay, trying to make him laugh. And I am succesfully diffusing on a case-by-case basis, but its like the churling grumpiness in him won't go away until I give him an actual reason to explode at me, get it out of his system, so we can start the cycle all over again.

Except I don't want the big explosion. Is there any way to avoid it? Or once he is winding up for it, is it unavoidable?

To add... .I am flip-flopping back and forth between making an excuse for limited contact for a few days so he has time to chill out or take it out on someone else (horrible, I know) and worrying that any excuse I give won't be well-received now that he already seems aggitated. I know he is stressed about work and training his new puppy which have nothing to do with me, but I am just waiting for him to find a reason why it is my fault (e.g. I helped him with the cover letter and resume, ergo it is my fault; or I paid for the puppy that he wanted and choose as an "I'm proud of you" gift, ergo it is my fault the dog is still pooping indoors).

Yes and no.

In simple terms, when he feels bad he looks to those close to him to offload the pain (e.g., frustration, disappointment, etc.). You are that person.  It also sounds like you have been overly generous with him - rescuing him - and feels trapped by it.

You can't solve that with logic or long term plans. Its all about behavior and short term, episodic, reaction.

You want to respond with a constructive reaction. So let's take the dog. When he says, "this darn dog you got me is making me late for work, #$#$". What do you hear and what do you say?

Naturally, most of us would be tense for it to happen (triggery) and ready to jump to you own defense when it does (it's not my fault that... .and some statement about responsibility).

See how this is a cycle of conflict. He unloads and pushes his frustration on you. You are on high alert and correct him, defend yourself, fight back (even if passively) .

Another possible reaction (your have to try these trial and error to see what works is), "He messed in the house again, oh man, that sucks. And you were late for your appointment. Wow. What happened? "

See what I'm saying?