My ex had a lot of sexual dysfunction. My guess is that the probability of her being sexually abused as a child is over 90%.
You think that prior to the rape as a late aged teenager that there is a 90% chance that she was sexually abused while living with her grandmother?
She never said she was sexually abused other than the rape. On what do you base such a highly specific prediction?
I get that you are trying to get me to ascertain what I do and do not know and to place proper confidence bounds related to reasonable certainty levels.
It was not specific really. A probability guess rounded to the nearest value of 10.
It is just a strong gut feeling. It is based upon life experience and a few things:
1. her living situation where she was incredibly vulnerable (abandoned and no real caretaker besides a drunk old lady, seeking affection due to abandonment, a family that openly says they greatly trust everyone (even strangers) until given a reason not to, the drunk grandma was highly promiscuous and was not faithful to her many husbands), and odd things like her grandma's husband of the year taking my ex to a bar as a child would occur
2. she does not remember a large chunk of her childhood and what she did remember was not discussed much
3. she said multiple times how there are so many things that she wants to tell me but cannot, and she would weep
4. she told me that she was raised to believe that women were to please men sexually and could not refuse them, yet she said her family never talked about sex and she even had to figure out her first menstruation on her own
5. she began having sex at a young age with her first serious boyfriend
6. she stated that as a child she had frequent, chronic urinary tract infections
7. she had sexual dysfunction that spanned all her relationships (difficulty in arousal and orgasm, faking orgasm, and other things) and was not intimate about sex and often violent (would hurt me and would want that back and to be dominated in a way where she was being "used"
8. bizarre relationship with male attention and likely promiscuous in her past
So, none of this is knockdown proof, but it is a lot of circumstantial evidence all creating in me a very distinct impression.
I've had 2 girlfriends that I believe were abused in this manner, and the difference between them and the other women I have been with is rather stark.